17 May 2013

He Said It: Williamson

Kevin D. Williamson
"Take, for example, the problem of designing a national health-care system. Washington is packed to the gills with people who believe that they have the ability to design an intelligent national health-care system, but there is not one who does—no Democrat, no Republican, no independent. The information burden is just too vast. Imagine a radically simplified health-care system, one in which any medical problem could be treated by taking one of fifty pills, but you can have only one pill a month, so you have to prioritize. That presents each individual with 58,150,627,116,341,760,000 options (that's '58 quintillion')--the number of ways to rank 12 choices out of 50 options--and political managers would have to do so for every American. Since there are 300 million Americans, we have to do a calculation for each one, meaning that we have to consider 1.74 x 1028 options, one of those numbers so large we don't have a common name for it. And since we'll assume that people's needs will change over time (an eighteen-year-old doesn't have the same health-care needs as an eighty-one-year-old), we'll want to review everybody's plan once a year. As they say in the political speeches, we're going to consider all of our options and take all of the information into account.

"Except we pretty obviously aren't.

"[...E]ven at the rate of one scenario per second we're in big trouble, since the number of seconds that have passed since the beginning of the universe (dated from the Big Bang, some 14 billion years ago) is a lot less than the number of possibilities we have to consider, only 4.42 x 1017 seconds in total. Put in perspective, the number of options to be examined in our ridiculously simplified system is 30 billion times the number of seconds that have passed since the beginning of time."

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